Welcome! I am a PhD candidate in Economics at Nova School of Business and Economics.

During the PhD, I have been a visiting student at NYU Stern, at Baruch College, CUNY, and at U. Pompeu Fabra. I also worked at the European Central Bank as a PhD trainee and research analyst.

My research interests are between macroeconomics and finance, focusing on household finance, consumption and saving, and housing. My supervisors are João B. Duarte and Francesco Franco.

Reach out at luis.teles.m@novasbe.pt.

Research

Working paper

The costs of building walls: immigration and the fiscal burden of aging in Europe
with Tiago Bernardino and Francesco Franco
(new version coming soon) (SSRN) | (CGO)

Presented at: Nova SBE, Stockholm University*, 15th PEJ Meeting, 18th International Conference on Pension, Insurance and Saving, the 60th Public Choice Society meetings*, the Lisbon Migration Economics Workshop*, The Economics of Migration Junior Seminar, the 2nd NBER Conference on Fertility and Declining Population Growth, 3rd LACEA HUMANS Workshop CDMX, BSE Summer Forum* (* by co-author)

Abstract

Population aging strains public finances by raising old-age dependency ratios. We show that immigration alleviates this fiscal burden when it is mostly composed of working-age individuals, even if they are low- skilled. Revisiting the standard population projection model, we demonstrate that increasing immigration flows decreases future dependency ratios, relieving public finances. We also unveil the decreasing returns of this effect, which make restricting immigration more costly. Combining this framework with rich micro data on taxes and benefits, we find that interrupting immigration flows would increase the fiscal burden of aging in the Euro area by 20%, with substantial variation across countries. Increasing fertility is not an alternative, as the benefits of a larger labor force only emerge after 40 years and do not offset higher ed- ucation spending. Our findings indicate that restricting immigration in Europe can substantially increase the tax burden on native workers.

Work in progress

Mortgage structure, saving rates and the wealth distribution (Job Market Paper)

Presented at: LIS Conference on Income and wealth inequality - Gdansk, NYU Student Macro Lunch (x2), 9th Luxembourg Household Finance and Consumption Workshop, 4th Nova PhD Final Countdown, Banco de Portugal, LBS Transatlantic Doctoral Conference 2025, Young Economists’ Seminar at the 31st HNB Dubrovnik Economic Conference, 7th Baltic Economic Conference - Vilnius, 18th PEJ Meeting+, Vigo Workshop on Dynamic Macroeconomics+, AREUEA International Conference 2025 Barcelona+ (+ scheduled)

Monetary policy and household portfolio composition
with Tiago Bernardino, Pedro Brinca, Ana Melissa Ferreira, Hans Holter and Mariana N. Pires

Presented at: Statistics Norway*, 2024 Royal Economic Society*, University of Oslo*, LSE Student Seminar*, 12th Swedish National PhD Workshop in Finance*, 18th PEJ Meeting+* (*co-author, + scheduled)

The cost of homeownership
with João B. Duarte and Francisco Rodrigues

Discussions at conferences and seminars

Exclusionary Government Rhetoric and Migration Intentions by P. Adrjan and J. Gromadzki
7th Baltic Economic Conference, 27 June 2025 (slides)

Property Rights and Financial Access by P. Tak
LBS TADC, 6 June 2025 (slides)

Native Flight in Education: The Venezuelan Migration to Peru by F. Li, D. Martinez, M. Martinez and C. Sanchez
HUMANS-LACEA Network 3rd Workshop, 10 April 2025 (slides)

Mortgage borrowing caps - leverage, default and welfare by J. Oliveira and L. Queiro
Nova SBE Workshop on Monetary Policy, Housing and Inequality, 20 December 2024 (slides)

Should I stay or should I go? The role of housing in understanding limited inter-regional worker mobility by J. Bojeryd
The Economics of Migration Junior Seminar, 26 March 2024 (slides)

Inflation Expectations and Households Portfolio Choice by Q. Yang
BSE PhD Workshop on Expectations in Macroeconomics, 4 Oct 2022 (slides)

Household Finance and Life-Cycle Economic Decisions under the Shadow of Cancer by D. Karpati
Nova SBE PhD Final Countdown, 2 September 2022 (slides)

Public Procurement, Credit, and Firm Dynamics by R. Duque Gabriel
Nova SBE PhD Pitch Perfect, 4 February 2022 (slides)

Opioid Epidemic and Mortgage Default by T. Karimli
Nova SBE PhD Pitch Perfect, 4 February 2022 (slides)