Welcome! I am a PhD candidate in Economics at Nova School of Business and Economics. I am on the 2025/26 academic job market.

My research interests lie in macroeconomics and finance, focusing on housing, household finance, consumption and saving.

During the PhD, I have been a visiting student at NYU Stern, Baruch College, and U. Pompeu Fabra. I also worked at the European Central Bank.

References:
João B. Duarte, Miguel Ferreira, Daniel L. Greenwald, and Francesco Franco

Reach out at luis.teles.m@novasbe.pt or check out my CV here.

Research

Job Market Paper

Mortgage structure, saving rates, and the wealth distribution

Abstract

In this paper, I show that fixed amortization schedules have powerful and heterogeneous effects on household consumption, saving and wealth. I study an otherwise standard life-cycle model with realistic mortgages, showing that homeowners rationally respond to mandatory repayments by cutting consumption and increasing precautionary saving in liquid assets. Consistent with this mechanism, I document in Euro area data that younger, poorer homeowners have much higher saving rates than their non-mortgage peers, and allocate a large share of sav- ing to mortgage repayment. The exception is the Netherlands, where interest-only mortgages are common. This complements recent quasi-experimental evidence showing large effects of amortization requirements on saving. A quantitative version of the model reproduces these facts and shows that mandatory amortization increases both home equity and financial wealth accumulation, particularly up to age 40. Wealth-to-income ratios increase by close to a quarter for lower-income homeowners at age 40, while the impact for the highest-income households is minimal. These effects build up over time and have substantial implications for aggregate consumption and wealth: mandatory amortization dampens total wealth inequality, but increases consumption volatility and financial wealth inequality.

Presented at: LIS Conference on Income and wealth inequality, NYU Student Macro Lunch, 9th Luxembourg Household Finance and Consumption Workshop, 4th Nova PhD Final Countdown, Banco de Portugal, LBS Transatlantic Doctoral Conference 2025, Young Economists’ Seminar at the 31st HNB Dubrovnik Economic Conference, 7th Baltic Economic Conference, 18th PEJ Meeting, XXVIII Vigo Workshop on Dynamic Macroeconomics, AREUEA International Conference 2025 Barcelona, Nova Macro/Finance PhD Job Market Workshop, CIRET (KOF-ETH) Workshop 2025, 4th Naples PhD and Post-Doctoral Workshop, 1st Zurich-Oxford Doctoral Symposium on Real Estate Markets, 8th Doctoral Workshop on Quantitative Dynamic Economics+, AFA/ASSA 2026 (poster)+ (+ scheduled)

Working papers

The cost of homeownership
with João B. Duarte and Francisco Rodrigues

Abstract

Conventional housing affordability metrics contradict the widespread perception of a secular rise in the cost of homeownership. The main index used by policymakers — based on mortgage-payment-to-income ratios — suggests affordability today is similar to 2000 and better than in the 1980s. Yet homeownership has declined among younger generations, who report feeling ‘priced out’. We develop a microfounded measure of homeownership cost that resolves this disconnect. Within a standard income fluctuations model with explicit housing finance, we compute the welfare cost of becoming a homeowner as the consumption-equivalent loss relative to free housing, isolating the cost of ownership from shifts in rent-price ratios. Unlike conventional metrics, this captures the full intertemporal burden: saving for a downpayment, purchasing the house, and servicing a mortgage. Our measure shows that median first-time buyers in the US faced a 30% increase in costs since 2000, rising to 60% for low-earners, while the top income quintile saw no increase — consistent with conventional metrics, which reflect the experience of wealthier households. Tighter macroprudential policies contributed to the increase by raising downpayment requirements. The measure is data-light and theoretically sound, providing a practical tool to assess housing affordability over the income distribution and across time and countries.

Presented at: 18th PEJ Meeting,* 10th Luxembourg Household Finance and Consumption Workshop,* Lisbon Mini Workshop on Housing Affordability,+ (*co-author, + scheduled)

Monetary policy and household portfolio composition
with Tiago Bernardino, Pedro Brinca, Ana Melissa Ferreira, Hans Holter and Mariana N. Pires

Abstract

How does monetary policy affect household portfolio composition? Resorting to highly granular data on the balance sheets of Norwegian households, we analyze how their wealth portfolios change in response to well-defined monetary policy shocks. We document three empirical facts on the aggregate response of households after a 1 percentage point increase in the policy rate: i) the total value of households' portfolios decreases by 4.1% two years after the shock; ii) monetary policy tightening decreases the risk exposure of portfolios, in particular the value of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds; iii) stock market participation is unaffected by monetary policy, but those who already own stocks increase their holdings. We find pronounced heterogeneity in the responses, noting these additional facts: iv) the drop in risky asset values is mostly driven by the wealthiest 10 percent, while a short-term positive response of safe assets comes from middle-class households' portfolios; v) middle‑aged homeowners benefit from a short-term house price appreciation, but for younger households, the effect becomes negative over time, indicating that tighter policy delays entry into home ownership.

Presented at: Statistics Norway*, 2024 Royal Economic Society*, University of Oslo*, LSE Student Seminar*, 12th Swedish National PhD Workshop in Finance*, 18th PEJ Meeting* (*co-author, + scheduled)

The costs of building walls: immigration and the fiscal burden of aging in Europe
with Tiago Bernardino and Francesco Franco
(new version coming soon) (SSRN) | (CGO)

Abstract

In low-fertility societies with working-age immigration, reducing inflows disproportionately raises dependency ratios as native populations shrink. This creates a convex policy frontier: restricting migration raises fiscal burdens at an increasing rate. We quantify this mechanism using a demographic model and novel estimates of immigrants’ fiscal contributions in the Euro area. Eliminating immigration raises the fiscal burden of aging by 16%, despite immigrants' low skills, while doubling inflows reduces it by 9%. Differences across countries are substantial, reflecting their positions on the frontier, but also heterogeneity in immigrants' ages and tax-benefit policies. Increasing natives' fertility does not provide comparable relief.

Presented at: Nova SBE, Stockholm University*, 15th PEJ Meeting, 18th International Conference on Pension, Insurance and Saving, the 60th Public Choice Society meetings*, the Lisbon Migration Economics Workshop*, The Economics of Migration Junior Seminar, the 2nd NBER Conference on Fertility and Declining Population Growth, 3rd LACEA HUMANS Workshop CDMX, BSE Summer Forum* (* by co-author)

Work in progress

Access to homeownership and the transmission of monetary and fiscal policy
with João B. Duarte and Francisco Rodrigues

Discussions at conferences and seminars

Intergenerational Mobility in the Presence of Informal Labor Markets by P. Cesana
4th Naples PhD and Post-Doctoral Workshop, 23 September 2025 (slides)

Google Search and the Exercise of Strategic Default on Mortgages by G. Marcato, S. Watanabe and B. Zhu
AREUEA International Conference Barcelona, 16 July 2025 (slides)

Exclusionary Government Rhetoric and Migration Intentions by P. Adrjan and J. Gromadzki
7th Baltic Economic Conference, 27 June 2025 (slides)

Property Rights and Financial Access by P. Tak
LBS TADC, 6 June 2025 (slides)

Native Flight in Education: The Venezuelan Migration to Peru by F. Li, D. Martinez, M. Martinez and C. Sanchez
HUMANS-LACEA Network 3rd Workshop, 10 April 2025 (slides)

Mortgage borrowing caps - leverage, default and welfare by J. Oliveira and L. Queiro
Nova SBE Workshop on Monetary Policy, Housing and Inequality, 20 December 2024 (slides)

Should I stay or should I go? The role of housing in understanding limited inter-regional worker mobility by J. Bojeryd
The Economics of Migration Junior Seminar, 26 March 2024 (slides)

Inflation Expectations and Households Portfolio Choice by Q. Yang
BSE PhD Workshop on Expectations in Macroeconomics, 4 October 2022 (slides)

Household Finance and Life-Cycle Economic Decisions under the Shadow of Cancer by D. Karpati
Nova SBE PhD Final Countdown, 2 September 2022 (slides)

Public Procurement, Credit, and Firm Dynamics by R. Duque Gabriel
Nova SBE PhD Pitch Perfect, 4 February 2022 (slides)

Opioid Epidemic and Mortgage Default by T. Karimli
Nova SBE PhD Pitch Perfect, 4 February 2022 (slides)