Welcome! I am a PhD candidate in Economics at Nova School of Business and Economics. I am on the 2025/26 academic job market.

My research interests lie in macroeconomics and finance, focusing on housing, household finance, consumption and saving, and monetary and fiscal policy.

During the PhD, I have been a visiting student at NYU Stern, Baruch College, and U. Pompeu Fabra. I also worked at the European Central Bank.

References:
João B. Duarte, Miguel Ferreira, Daniel L. Greenwald, and Francesco Franco

Reach out at luis.teles.m@novasbe.pt or check out my CV here.

Research

Job Market Paper

Mortgage structure, household saving, and the wealth distribution
(PDF)

Abstract

Mortgage repayments make up 30% of Euro-area household saving flows. I show that fixed amortization schedules, mandatory in most countries, induce wealth accumulation through debt repayment but limit consumption smoothing. In a life-cycle model with uninsurable income risk and illiquid home equity, costly deviation from scheduled repayment forces constrained homeowners to cut consumption and liquid saving. In the data, homebuyers are constrained: starting with large mortgages and little cash, they save more than renters (including debt repayment) but accumulate less liquid wealth. I exploit a 2013 Dutch policy change that made previously-free flexible repayment costly through tax incentives. Homebuyers accelerated repayment and built less liquid buffers. The model matches these patterns and shows mandatory amortization increases the share of hand-to-mouth households by 15 percentage points, amplifying financial wealth inequality. Welfare losses, at 2–3% of lifetime consumption – equivalent to working an extra year before retirement – are concentrated among lower-income households.

Presented at: LIS Conference on Income and wealth inequality, NYU Student Macro Lunch, 9th Luxembourg Household Finance and Consumption Workshop, 4th Nova PhD Final Countdown, Banco de Portugal, LBS Transatlantic Doctoral Conference 2025, Young Economists’ Seminar at the 31st HNB Dubrovnik Economic Conference, 7th Baltic Economic Conference, 18th PEJ Meeting, XXVIII Vigo Workshop on Dynamic Macroeconomics, AREUEA International Conference 2025 Barcelona, Nova Macro/Finance PhD Job Market Workshop, CIRET (KOF-ETH) Workshop 2025, 4th Naples PhD and Post-Doctoral Workshop, 1st Zurich-Oxford Doctoral Symposium on Real Estate Markets, 8th Doctoral Workshop on Quantitative Dynamic Economics - Konstanz, AFA/ASSA 2026 (poster)+ (+ scheduled)

Working papers

The cost of homeownership
with João B. Duarte and Francisco Rodrigues
(PDF)

Abstract

Conventional housing affordability metrics contradict the widespread perception of a secular rise in the cost of homeownership. The main index used by policymakers — based on mortgage-payment-to-income ratios — suggests affordability today is similar to 2000 and better than in the 1980s. Yet homeownership has declined among younger generations, who report feeling ‘priced out’. We develop a microfounded measure of homeownership cost that resolves this disconnect. Within a standard income fluctuations model with explicit housing finance, we compute the welfare cost of becoming a homeowner as the consumption-equivalent loss relative to free housing, isolating the cost of ownership from shifts in rent-price ratios. Unlike conventional metrics, this captures the full intertemporal burden: saving for a downpayment, purchasing the house, and servicing a mortgage. Our measure shows that median first-time buyers in the US faced a 30% increase in costs since 2000, rising to 60% for low-earners, while the top income quintile saw no increase — consistent with conventional metrics, which reflect the experience of wealthier households. Tighter macroprudential policies contributed to the increase by raising downpayment requirements. The measure is data-light and theoretically sound, providing a practical tool to assess housing affordability over the income distribution and across time and countries.

Presented at: 18th PEJ Meeting,* 10th Luxembourg Household Finance and Consumption Workshop,* Lisbon Mini Workshop on Housing Affordability,+ (*co-author, + scheduled)

Monetary policy and household portfolio composition
with Tiago Bernardino, Pedro Brinca, Ana Melissa Ferreira, Hans Holter and Mariana N. Pires
(PDF)

Abstract

How does monetary policy affect household portfolio composition? Resorting to highly granular data on the balance sheets of Norwegian households, we analyze how their wealth portfolios change in response to well-identified monetary policy shocks. We document new empirical facts about how household portfolios adjust to monetary tightening: i) total portfolio size rises initially but contracts after two years; ii) risky asset values decline, while housing wealth increases briefly before falling, with secondary residences showing a pronounced short-run rise; iii) financially active households rebalance by increasing their holdings of stocks and private-equity; iv) decreases in risky asset values are concentrated among the wealthiest households; v) housing responses are highly heterogeneous, with richer households expanding primary and secondary housing; vi) holding adjustments vary across the wealth distribution: stock holdings increase slightly more at the top, while private-equity increases are concentrated in the tails.

Presented at: Statistics Norway*, 2024 Royal Economic Society*, University of Oslo*, LSE Student Seminar*, 12th Swedish National PhD Workshop in Finance*, 18th PEJ Meeting*, Sveriges Riksbank*+ (*co-author, + scheduled)

The costs of building walls: immigration and the fiscal burden of aging in Europe
with Tiago Bernardino and Francesco Franco
(paper)

Abstract

In low-fertility societies with working-age immigration, reducing inflows disproportionately raises dependency ratios. This creates a convex policy frontier: restricting immigration raises fiscal burdens at an increasing rate. We quantify this mechanism using a demographic model and novel estimates of immigrants’ fiscal contributions in the euro area. Eliminating immigration raises the tax increase required to finance aging-related spending by 16%, while doubling inflows reduces it by only 9%. Differences across countries are substantial, reflecting their positions on the frontier as well as heterogeneity in immigrants’ ages and national tax-benefit systems. Immigration improves fiscal balances even when migrants are low-skilled, as long as their lifetime contributions exceed those of newborn natives. Higher native fertility offers no comparable relief.

Presented at: Nova SBE, Stockholm University*, 15th PEJ Meeting, 18th International Conference on Pension, Insurance and Saving, the 60th Public Choice Society meetings*, the Lisbon Migration Economics Workshop*, The Economics of Migration Junior Seminar, the 2nd NBER Conference on Fertility and Declining Population Growth, 3rd LACEA HUMANS Workshop CDMX, BSE Summer Forum* (* by co-author)

Work in progress

Access to homeownership and the transmission of monetary and fiscal policy
with João B. Duarte and Francisco Rodrigues

Other publications

Developing distributional national accounts: first attempt to estimate a joint distribution for income and wealth for the euro area
with Nina Blatnik and Ilja Kristian Kavonius
(ECB Working Paper)
R&R, Review of Income and Wealth

Discussions at conferences and seminars

Intergenerational Mobility in the Presence of Informal Labor Markets by P. Cesana
4th Naples PhD and Post-Doctoral Workshop, 23 September 2025 (slides)

Google Search and the Exercise of Strategic Default on Mortgages by G. Marcato, S. Watanabe and B. Zhu
AREUEA International Conference Barcelona, 16 July 2025 (slides)

Exclusionary Government Rhetoric and Migration Intentions by P. Adrjan and J. Gromadzki
7th Baltic Economic Conference, 27 June 2025 (slides)

Property Rights and Financial Access by P. Tak
LBS TADC, 6 June 2025 (slides)

Native Flight in Education: The Venezuelan Migration to Peru by F. Li, D. Martinez, M. Martinez and C. Sanchez
HUMANS-LACEA Network 3rd Workshop, 10 April 2025 (slides)

Mortgage borrowing caps - leverage, default and welfare by J. Oliveira and L. Queiro
Nova SBE Workshop on Monetary Policy, Housing and Inequality, 20 December 2024 (slides)

Should I stay or should I go? The role of housing in understanding limited inter-regional worker mobility by J. Bojeryd
The Economics of Migration Junior Seminar, 26 March 2024 (slides)

Inflation Expectations and Households Portfolio Choice by Q. Yang
BSE PhD Workshop on Expectations in Macroeconomics, 4 October 2022 (slides)

Household Finance and Life-Cycle Economic Decisions under the Shadow of Cancer by D. Karpati
Nova SBE PhD Final Countdown, 2 September 2022 (slides)

Public Procurement, Credit, and Firm Dynamics by R. Duque Gabriel
Nova SBE PhD Pitch Perfect, 4 February 2022 (slides)

Opioid Epidemic and Mortgage Default by T. Karimli
Nova SBE PhD Pitch Perfect, 4 February 2022 (slides)