Welcome! I am a PhD candidate in Economics at Nova School of Business and Economics. I am on the 2025/26 academic job market.

My research interests lie in macroeconomics and finance, focusing on housing, household finance, consumption and saving, and monetary and fiscal policy.

During the PhD, I have been a visiting student at NYU Stern, Baruch College, and U. Pompeu Fabra. I also worked at the European Central Bank.

References:
João B. Duarte, Miguel Ferreira, Daniel L. Greenwald, and Francesco Franco

Reach out at luis.teles.m@novasbe.pt or check out my CV here.

Research

Job Market Paper

Mortgage structure, household saving, and the wealth distribution
(PDF)

Abstract

Mortgage repayment accounts for 30% of household saving flows in the Euro area. Much of this saving is not chosen freely: in most countries, rigid amortization schedules are unavoidable by homeowners. I quantify their effects using a life-cycle model with uninsurable income risk and illiquid housing wealth. Deviating from the scheduled mortgage repayment is costly, leading most homeowners to cut consumption and save more out of their income. This saving, channeled into home equity, crowds out liquid savings. Consistent with the model, younger and lower-income homeowners in Euro-area data save more than renters but accumulate less liquid wealth—except in the Netherlands, where repayment is more flexible. I calibrate the model to Dutch HFCS data spanning a 2013 policy change that increased the cost of flexibility for new homebuyers, matching observed debt repayment and liquid wealth patterns over the life cycle and across permanent-income groups. Applying the new regime to pre-2013 homebuyers increases the share of hand-to-mouth households by 15 percentage points, raising consumption volatility and marginal propensities to consume. Welfare losses, equivalent to 2-3% of lifetime consumption, are concentrated among lower-wealth households, who value payment flexibility most. Mandatory amortization reduces homeowners’ ability to smooth consumption, amplifying financial wealth inequality.

Presented at: LIS Conference on Income and wealth inequality, NYU Student Macro Lunch, 9th Luxembourg Household Finance and Consumption Workshop, 4th Nova PhD Final Countdown, Banco de Portugal, LBS Transatlantic Doctoral Conference 2025, Young Economists’ Seminar at the 31st HNB Dubrovnik Economic Conference, 7th Baltic Economic Conference, 18th PEJ Meeting, XXVIII Vigo Workshop on Dynamic Macroeconomics, AREUEA International Conference 2025 Barcelona, Nova Macro/Finance PhD Job Market Workshop, CIRET (KOF-ETH) Workshop 2025, 4th Naples PhD and Post-Doctoral Workshop, 1st Zurich-Oxford Doctoral Symposium on Real Estate Markets, 8th Doctoral Workshop on Quantitative Dynamic Economics - Konstanz, AFA/ASSA 2026 (poster)+ (+ scheduled)

Working papers

The cost of homeownership
with João B. Duarte and Francisco Rodrigues
(PDF)

Abstract

Conventional housing affordability metrics contradict the widespread perception of a secular rise in the cost of homeownership. The main index used by policymakers — based on mortgage-payment-to-income ratios — suggests affordability today is similar to 2000 and better than in the 1980s. Yet homeownership has declined among younger generations, who report feeling ‘priced out’. We develop a microfounded measure of homeownership cost that resolves this disconnect. Within a standard income fluctuations model with explicit housing finance, we compute the welfare cost of becoming a homeowner as the consumption-equivalent loss relative to free housing, isolating the cost of ownership from shifts in rent-price ratios. Unlike conventional metrics, this captures the full intertemporal burden: saving for a downpayment, purchasing the house, and servicing a mortgage. Our measure shows that median first-time buyers in the US faced a 30% increase in costs since 2000, rising to 60% for low-earners, while the top income quintile saw no increase — consistent with conventional metrics, which reflect the experience of wealthier households. Tighter macroprudential policies contributed to the increase by raising downpayment requirements. The measure is data-light and theoretically sound, providing a practical tool to assess housing affordability over the income distribution and across time and countries.

Presented at: 18th PEJ Meeting,* 10th Luxembourg Household Finance and Consumption Workshop,* Lisbon Mini Workshop on Housing Affordability,+ (*co-author, + scheduled)

Monetary policy and household portfolio composition
with Tiago Bernardino, Pedro Brinca, Ana Melissa Ferreira, Hans Holter and Mariana N. Pires
(PDF)

Abstract

How does monetary policy affect household portfolio composition? Resorting to highly granular data on the balance sheets of Norwegian households, we analyze how their wealth portfolios change in response to well-defined monetary policy shocks. We document three empirical facts on the aggregate response of households after a 1 percentage point increase in the policy rate: i) the total value of households' portfolios decreases by 4.1% two years after the shock; ii) monetary policy tightening decreases the risk exposure of portfolios, in particular the value of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds; iii) stock market participation is unaffected by monetary policy, but those who already own stocks increase their holdings. We find pronounced heterogeneity in the responses, noting these additional facts: iv) the drop in risky asset values is mostly driven by the wealthiest 10 percent, while a short-term positive response of safe assets comes from middle-class households' portfolios; v) middle‑aged homeowners benefit from a short-term house price appreciation, but for younger households, the effect becomes negative over time, indicating that tighter policy delays entry into home ownership.

Presented at: Statistics Norway*, 2024 Royal Economic Society*, University of Oslo*, LSE Student Seminar*, 12th Swedish National PhD Workshop in Finance*, 18th PEJ Meeting*, Sveriges Riksbank*+ (*co-author, + scheduled)

The costs of building walls: immigration and the fiscal burden of aging in Europe
with Tiago Bernardino and Francesco Franco
(paper)

Abstract

In low-fertility societies with working-age immigration, reducing inflows disproportionately raises dependency ratios. This creates a convex policy frontier: restricting immigration raises fiscal burdens at an increasing rate. We quantify this mechanism using a demographic model and novel estimates of immigrants’ fiscal contributions in the euro area. Eliminating immigration raises the tax increase required to finance aging-related spending by 16%, while doubling inflows reduces it by only 9%. Differences across countries are substantial, reflecting their positions on the frontier as well as heterogeneity in immigrants’ ages and national tax-benefit systems. Immigration improves fiscal balances even when migrants are low-skilled, as long as their lifetime contributions exceed those of newborn natives. Higher native fertility offers no comparable relief.

Presented at: Nova SBE, Stockholm University*, 15th PEJ Meeting, 18th International Conference on Pension, Insurance and Saving, the 60th Public Choice Society meetings*, the Lisbon Migration Economics Workshop*, The Economics of Migration Junior Seminar, the 2nd NBER Conference on Fertility and Declining Population Growth, 3rd LACEA HUMANS Workshop CDMX, BSE Summer Forum* (* by co-author)

Work in progress

Access to homeownership and the transmission of monetary and fiscal policy
with João B. Duarte and Francisco Rodrigues

Other publications

Developing distributional national accounts: first attempt to estimate a joint distribution for income and wealth for the euro area
with Nina Blatnik and Ilja Kristian Kavonius
(ECB Working Paper)
R&R, Review of Income and Wealth

Discussions at conferences and seminars

Intergenerational Mobility in the Presence of Informal Labor Markets by P. Cesana
4th Naples PhD and Post-Doctoral Workshop, 23 September 2025 (slides)

Google Search and the Exercise of Strategic Default on Mortgages by G. Marcato, S. Watanabe and B. Zhu
AREUEA International Conference Barcelona, 16 July 2025 (slides)

Exclusionary Government Rhetoric and Migration Intentions by P. Adrjan and J. Gromadzki
7th Baltic Economic Conference, 27 June 2025 (slides)

Property Rights and Financial Access by P. Tak
LBS TADC, 6 June 2025 (slides)

Native Flight in Education: The Venezuelan Migration to Peru by F. Li, D. Martinez, M. Martinez and C. Sanchez
HUMANS-LACEA Network 3rd Workshop, 10 April 2025 (slides)

Mortgage borrowing caps - leverage, default and welfare by J. Oliveira and L. Queiro
Nova SBE Workshop on Monetary Policy, Housing and Inequality, 20 December 2024 (slides)

Should I stay or should I go? The role of housing in understanding limited inter-regional worker mobility by J. Bojeryd
The Economics of Migration Junior Seminar, 26 March 2024 (slides)

Inflation Expectations and Households Portfolio Choice by Q. Yang
BSE PhD Workshop on Expectations in Macroeconomics, 4 October 2022 (slides)

Household Finance and Life-Cycle Economic Decisions under the Shadow of Cancer by D. Karpati
Nova SBE PhD Final Countdown, 2 September 2022 (slides)

Public Procurement, Credit, and Firm Dynamics by R. Duque Gabriel
Nova SBE PhD Pitch Perfect, 4 February 2022 (slides)

Opioid Epidemic and Mortgage Default by T. Karimli
Nova SBE PhD Pitch Perfect, 4 February 2022 (slides)